119 Predictions Revisited - Part I

The Institution is back!

Let me get this out of the way now and let it be known that I am not leaving the fine Gentlemen over Winging it in Motown.  I will still be doing some writing over there this summer and over the course of next season.  Unless they fire me for writing here instead of over there...which if that's the case...screw you Casey, Graham, and J.J.  I never you liked you guys that much anyway.  Then again, if they don't fire me, ignore everything I just wrote.  Except Casey.  Screw him either way.  

So by now everyone must be wondering why I'm back posting here.  Truth is, I felt like I needed to get back to my blogging roots and fulfill the world's needs of more Brendan Smith love.  This blog has a rich history dating all the way back to July 9, 2010 and the legacy that is the BSI must continue to grow.  

Last offseason, I presented the world with 119 predictions for the 2010-2011 season.  I'll admit right now, I'm just as shocked as you that I didn't get all 119 predictions correct.  Over the course of the summer, I plan to look back on my 119 predictions and reflect and wonder what the hell I was thinking when I made these.  Today is the first installment of this blockbuster summer series.  There is no schedule for when these time capsules of awesomeness will be released.  I will post them when I feel like it throughout the summer.  

Let's get down to business.  Today I look back at the first 14 predictions for the 2010-11 season.

1. Jimmy Howard will not have a sophomore slump.
This one is debatable, but because this is my blog and I make the rules.   His regular season numbers (2.79 GAA, .908 SV%) weren't spectacular, but his 37 wins were second in the league.  Plus, his postseason was outstanding.  I dare you to tell me that this team cannot win a Stanley Cup with Jimmy in net.  He proved his postseason doubters this year.  Jimmy, Pavel, and Nick were easily the three best players in the postseason.

2. Brendan Smith will play at least one game this season.
Sadly, this prediction did not come true.  I did get a chance to see Smith play in Grand Rapids this year though (a 4-3 win over the Marlies.  Smith registered an assist).  I have a feeling this AHL All-Star will be making the big club sooner rather than later i.e. next season.  Thanks Brian!

3. The biggest losing streak the Wings will have all season is three games.
The Wings lost 3-straight games twice this season  Both times at least one of the three losses went to OT/SO.  So the team never went pointless.  Their longest losing streak was 4-straight games (@ANA, @SJ, @PHX, vs LA).  The loss to the Ducks occurred in OT and the loss in Phoenix was in a shootout.

4. Detroit will have four all-stars this season.Nope.  Just one...Captain Nick.  The Perfect Human led Team Lidstrom (second best team name in all of sports behind Red Wings) to a 11-10 victory over Team Staal.  Lidstrom registered an assists in the game and was a plus-7.  Let me say that again...PLUS-7...in a freakin' all-star game where no one plays defense...not even the goalies.  Perfect numbers from TPH.

5. Nick Lidstrom will be a Norris trophy finalist. 
Nailed it.  Lidstrom was 2nd in scoring among all defenseman.  He was third in assists and tied for fourth in goals.      Lidstrom's 62 points was the 6th highest point total in his career.  I personally expect a 7th Norris trophy.  

6. <----- the number of overtime losses for the Wings.
I was off by 4.  The Wings had 10 overtime/shootout losses this season.

7. No playoff series involving Detroit will go seven games.
Yup.  Missed this one too.  I'm glad though, getting this prediction correct would mean that the Wings didn't fight back against the Sharks.  I'll take being wrong here.

8. Abby will win a fight.
Abby won more than one fight...I'm pretty sure.

9. GUEST PREDICTION: Jesse Liebman from Last Call Sports and The Good Old Hockey Show - "Mike Modano will put up 35+ points." 
15 points in 40 games for Modano.  If he doesn't get hurt, I say he hits the 35 point mark.  

10. <----- the number of games the Lions will win......just kidding! I prediction six wins.
Six wins for the Lions...crushed this prediction.  Ladies and gentlemen, expect 9 wins this upcoming season (if no games are missed due to the lockout).

11. I honestly have no idea which Danny Cleary we will see this season, but I hope it's the healthy one that can put up 20 goals. 
68 games?  That's relatively healthy for Buckets.  26 goals?  A career high. Nailed this one.

12. The Wings will win every home opener that they are involved in.
Wings lost 4-1 in the Stars' home opener.  I blame Modano.  Also, just retire Mike.  Don't come back again.  Skate off into the sunset with Willa.  This offseason, I'm Nodano...more like NO-NO-NO-HELL NODANO.

13. Detroit will win the first ever game at the Consol Energy Center.
Wings lost 5-1 and Brooks Orpik can suck it.

14. Hank will continue to shut down Crosby.
He didn't have to because David Steckel took care of Sid for everyone.

So by my count, through 14 predictions, I have a mean record of 4-8-2 (Correct-Incorrect-Push).  Not the best record in the world, but I'm just a slow starter.  I always finish strong.  

14 down.  105 to go.

Let's Go Red Wings.

It's almost here

(Chris Young/Canadian Press)

Can you feel it?  Four more days until Red Wings' hockey is officially back. 

Last night the Wings sent 13 players down to Grand Rapids and the roster is all but complete.  One of the 13 players sent down was none other than Brendan Smith.  I only had a chance to watch two preseason games and parts of others, but I can tell you that Smith to Grand Rapids is the right move.  I think it was the expected move going into this season too.  I had hoped Smith would've been so good in camp that Kenny couldn't keep him off the roster, but it was a long shot.  At times he looked lost on the ice.  At other times he had moments that made you think he's going to be something special.  The highlight for me was watching him play next to Lidstrom for a few shifts.  I'm looking forward to following his progress with the Griffins and I hope he gets called up for a few games late in the season.  I fully expect Smith to be a Red Wings in 2011/2012.  Other players I was impressed with in the preseason: Cory Emmerton, Jan Mursak, and Tomas Tater.

And now onto the big club.  This morning the Wings' waived Mattias Ritola.  I've been on Team Miller all offseason and this news is no surprise after Mike Babcock said that Drew Miller has a spot on this team.  So where does this leave the club?  A few more cuts have to be made and I fully expect to see Joey MacDonald, Derek Meech, and Doug Janik sent down.  Kirk Maltby will also most likely be spending time with the Griffins and training the young kids to run their mouths to perfection just like he has done during his career.  Here's the line-up I want to see this Friday against Anaheim:

Pavel Datsyuk-Henrik Zetterberg-Tomas Holmstrom
Johan Franzen-Valterri Filppula-Todd Bertuzzi
Jiri Hudler-Mike Modano-Danny Cleary
Justin Abdelkader-Darren Helm-Drew Miller/Patrick Eaves

Nicklas Lidstrom-Niklas Kronwall
Brad Stuart-Brian Rafalski
Jakub Kindl-Ruslan Salei

Jimmy Howard
Chris Osgood

Scratched/Injured: Kris Draper (groin), Jonathon Ericsson (vagina), Miller/Eaves

Of course, we'll probably see Big Rig in the line-up instead of Kindl.  If Eaves ankle is good-to-go, I think he should get the final spot on the 4th line.  If he's not ready, then it's Miller Time. 

Four more days. 

The road to 12 begins on Friday.

Let's Go Red Wings

(Note: This is my 19th post at BSI, so I felt like it was important to remind the world that Steve Yzerman is the greatest hockey player ever.)

Ch-ch-ch-changes

I’ve been gone for the majority of the month getting ready for my final semester of college and visiting this guy in PA. The next four months are going to be busy, but awesome.  I have one class, but it’s a big one incorporating all of the journalism knowledge I’ve learned in the last four years.  I have to produce my own newscast of any kind.  I’m thinking a Bruins season preview show sounds good to me.  I will be interning in the sports department of WHDH 7 News here in Boston and will be the associate producer of Emerson’s WEBN Sports program (imagine SportsCenter meets college production).  Not to mention, I have my final cross-country season and hockey season as well.  But have no fear! This blog will be up-and-running.  I can’t wait for the season to start. 

A lot has happened since my last post examining which free agent could fill the shoes skates as Jonathon Ericsson’s babysitter (i.e. the sixth defenseman).  Thankfully no one pays me to write these posts.  I listed and wrote about nine potential suitors.  So far, one has retired (Aaron Ward), one signed for $2.5 million a season with L.A. (Willie Mitchell), and another signed for $600k with the Thrashawks (Freddy Meyer).  Where was Ruslan Salei on the list? Oh yeah...I didn’t include him.  I love the pick-up though.  Salei will add some snarl to this team.  The fact that he previously played for Babcock and enjoys playing for Babcock...I’m sold.  Can we give Kenny the GM of the Year award yet?

What else has changed? Helm and Abby both resigned for 2 years of friendly cap-hits.  I don’t think anyone actually thought they wouldn’t return. These two have Red Wings For Life written all over them and I think everyone would agree.  With those two signed, the Wings roster is essentially set for the season.  Meech will most likely be traded.  And when it comes to the Ritola/Miller debate? I’m on Team Miller. 

Now of course there have been some other big changes lately that need to be mentioned.  A big shout out needs to be sent to Petrella, Disch, and Hollis over at the new Production Line.  The new site looks awesome, they pulled Hollis out of his brief Favre-like retirement, and The Obstructed View is now The Production Hour (TP:60).  Make sure to check out the new digs over at TPL.

And one final congrats to Kyle of at Babcock’s Death Stare.  His blog will be going on hiatus for the season, because he will be interning with the Grand Rapids Griffins.  We will surely miss his awesome work over at BDS, but wish him the best of luck with the Griffins.  Kyle has always been more than helpful answering my Red Wings questions and giving the BSI some shout outs on his blog.  And for that, I say thank you.

Lets Go Red Wings.

The 6th D

Modanogate is now over.  For the record, I was not Prodano or Nodano, but actually SoSodano (thanks Petrella Modaneutral (Modanotral? Yeah, that was the best attempt I could come up with).  If he signed with the Wings...awesome.  If he took his talents to South Beach Minnesota or California...it's all good.  I was confident Abby could do the job.  But, now the vet is on board and it looks like we'll be seeing #90 on the ice for the first time in Red Wings' history.

We had been told by Kenny before that after Modano took his time to decide, we'd see the dominoes fall in regards to Abby and Helm.  Well, today that did indeed happen.  Darren Drager broke the news on Twitter that Helm had agreed to a 2 year, $1.825M contract.  Works for me.  The deal comes out to a cap hit of $912.5K.  I think many of us assumed he'd come around the 900k and I think this deal is more than fair for both sides.  The next domino to fall will be Abdelkader.  He made $850k last year and I would expect him to fall in around the $900k mark as well.  We don't know the exact numbers with Modano yet.  I've seen that he'll sign for $1.25M and I've seen $1.3M.  Either way, it will leave the Wings' a little bit of room for that 6th and final defenseman to add to the corps.  Let's just assume Modano does make $1.3M.  Here's how the cap situation looks:

Of course, I'm also assuming that Derek Meech will not make the team as the 6th defenseman and will be traded and Mattias Ritola will be sent down to Grand Rapids, traded, or selected by another team if he doesn't clear waivers.  This would give the Wings just under $1.2M to spend on a 6th defenseman.  Of course, keep in mind that Kenny will probably leave a little bit of cap space left over in case of injuries or call-ups.  Just who could that last defensemen be?  Let's take a look at the candidates, shall we?


Brendan Witt

Witt was recently bought out by the New York Islanders.  He was scheduled to make $2.5M from the Islanders, but will receive $1.3M this season and just over $800k next year because of the buyout.  We could see a similar situation to what we saw with Patrick Eaves last year.  Eaves took very little money to play for the Wings and prove himself, all while he was still being paid by Boston.  Witt could sign for a one year deal, say for around $800k and become the Wings 6th defenseman.  Last year he played 42 games for the Islanders and registered 2 goals and 3 assists in 15 minutes of ice time.  He was a -18 as well.  He's 6'2", 223 lbs and could provide a stay-at-home type toughness on the third pairing.  And we all know how tough Witt is.  He was hit by a car the morning before a game...and still played that night.

Aaron Ward

Wings fans could see the return of Ward this upcoming season.  Since being traded by the Wings in 2001, he's won a Cup with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has also played for the Boston Bruins, New York Rangers, and most recently, the Anaheim Ducks.  Last season Ward played 77 games between the Hurricanes and Ducks and put up 1 goal, 13 assists, and was a -15 in 17 minutes of ice time.  Ward made $2.5M last season. I watched Ward quite a bit here in Boston during his time with the Bruins.  He seemed to be a good locker room guy according to the media here.  A lot of B's fans were surprised when he got traded.  I wouldn't mind seeing him back in Detroit.

Shane Hnidy

Hnidy is a 6'2" 210lb defenseman who played for the Minnesota Wild last season.  In 70 games, he scored 2 goals and 12 assists and was a -6 in 13.5 minutes of ice time.  Hnidy made $750k last season with the Wild.  Little known fact, Hnidy played 77 games with the Grand Rapids Griffins in 97-98 and 2 games with the club in 2001 when they were part of the IHL.

Mike Mottau

Mottau is still waiting to hear from the Devils about the chance to resign with them (they must be busy with that Kovalchuk guy or something).  Last season Mottau played in 79 games posting 2 goals and 16 assists.  He averaged just over 22 minutes of ice time and was a +4.  Not bad for a guy making just over $750k on the season.  Depending on how much of a raise he wants, I think the 6', 193lb defenseman could be a nice addition.  He would have to play much less than 22 minutes though on the third defensive pairing though. 

Christoph Schubert

Only 28-years-old, Schubert is a 6'3", 230lb defenseman last seen roaming the ice with Atlanta.  He played 47 games and scored 2 goals and 5 assists.  He was a -6 in almost 16 minutes of ice time.  Minus-6 doesn't seem too bad to me considering he played with the Thrashers.  Then again, Atlanta did sign Chris Chelios last season, so that might be an indication of Schubert's talent level?  I'd like to see if he was a healthy scratch in favor of Chelios in any games.  No offense to Chelly, I mean, it's just that a 28-year-old shouldn't be beaten out by someone who's almost 50.  Schubert made $883k last season.


Freddy Meyer

Meyer is a 5'10", 192lbs, and 29-years-old.  He played 64 games with the Islanders last season and recorded 4 goals and 11 assists in just under 17 minutes of ice time.  He was a -2 on the season.  Meyer made $600k last year.  He seems like he has decent stats for a potential 6th defenseman.  The -2 is a good sign considering he played for a bad team.  I'd personally like to see someone signed that is bigger than 5' 10" though.

Andreas Lilja

We all know Lilja's story.  He was making $1.25M last season and it sounded like he was looking for a raise and/or more ice time next season.  He helped the PK tremendously when he returned from his concussion last year.  I would not have a problem having Lilja back on the third pair with Jonathon Ericsson.  With the market as slow and quiet has it has been lately, maybe he'll be willing to take less money to come back to the Wings.

Willie Mitchell

Mitchell made $3.5M last season with Vancouver.  He suffered a concussion in January and missed the remainder of the year.  He's probably the least likely to join the Wings based on his potential salary demands, but it's been reported that Detroit his on his short list of possible destinations.  Maybe he will take much less for a true chance a Cup?  We'll see.  Mitchell is 6'3" and 205lbs.  In 48 games last season he posted 2 goals, 8 assists and was a +13 in just over 22.5 minutes of ice time.

In House Solution

Of course, if Kenny wants to save cap space and take a wait-and-see approach into the season,  he could just let Derek Meech, Doug Janik, Jakub Kindl, and the namesake of this blog, Brendan Smith battle it out for the final spot.  Who knows at this point?  One of those guys could have a great camp and blow away the competition (although I wouldn't place any big bets on Meech or Janik).  Personally, I'd love to see Smith get some time with the big club this season, but I'm okay with whatever decision Kenny makes to give this team the best chance to win the Stanley Cup.

Of course, there are other names out there too that could fill the role of 6th defensemen for the Wings.  Once Abby is signed the final domino will most likely fall.  But I want to know, who do you think should be the teams' 6th defenseman? Leave a comment about who you think would fill the role the best.

Lets Go Red Wings

'Mo' than one year, eh?

Not too long ago Dan Rosen of NHL.com tweeted some interesting news.

I just spoke with Mike Babcock and he's convinced that Mike Modano will sign with the Red Wings, and play 2 years in Detroit.

Modano for two years, eh?  I know I was on board with the idea of Mo for one year and a final run at a Cup with his hometown team before he hangs up the skates, but two years? For a 40-year-old that isn't even sure if he wants to play this year?  Not so sure about that.

What else do Rosen have to say...

Babcock said he met with Modano in Detroit earlier in the week and now believes it's just a matter of time before he signs, but...

and

He also said he's been wrong before, so it wouldn't shock him if he is again. He doesn't think we'll know until Aug. 1 at the earliest.

So let's get this straight, Uncle Mike believes that it's just a matter of time before Modano will sign with Detroit, it will possibly be for two years, and we won't know until August 1st at the earliest?  This news has certainly sparked a conversation on Twitter.  Could it be that the two year deal will be given to lower Modano's cap hit?  It makes sense, but Modano could retire after the first year and the Wings would be on the hook for his 35+ contract.  If the cap hit is small though it might not be a big deal.  Especially with the strong chance the Lidstrom finally hangs up the skates after next season.

I still like the idea of Modano centering that third line between Hudler and Cleary.  If Kenny thinks 2 years is a good idea, then I will not argue with that.  I have to say though, can we please get a real update on Abby and Helm?  I don't like the idea that Modano's indecision is preventing us/holding up the signings of two players that should be lifetime Red Wings.

Lets go, Mo!  Make a decision.  Sign on the dotted line, put on that Winged Wheel sweater, and go get your 2nd Stanley Cup.  I don't feel like waiting until August. 

UPDATE: Here is the full story from Dan Rosen over at NHL.com.  Check it out!

Lets Go Red Wings