There is no doubt that Brendan Smith has garnered a lot of attention the last few years (Heck, I named my blog after him). From the moment the Red Wings drafted him 27th overall in the 2007 NHL draft, he was labeled the future of the blue line. He wasn’t expected to be an immediate success. At the time of the draft, he was a member of the St. Michael’s Buzzers in the Ontario Provincial Junior Hockey League and planning to attend the University of Wisconsin and compete in NCAA Division I ice hockey. The Wings were more than happy to allow him to spend three-to-four years in college, maturing as both a person and a player.
As a Badger, Smith hit a bump or two on the maturity road, but his game on the ice excelled and improved every season. He went from 12 points in 22 games as a freshman to 23 points in 31 games as a sophomore. in his junior (and final) season at Wisconsin, Smith had 15 goals and 37 assists. An outstanding 52 points in 42 games. He was named one of the top ten finalists for the Hobey Baker award and tied a NCAA record with five assists in 8-1 win over RIT in Frozen Four semifinal in Detroit. After losing to Boston College in the Frozen Four championship game, Smith decides it was time for the next challenge. He left school and year early, signed an entry level contract with the Red Wings, and took his talents to Grand Rapids. And so far, he leads the team with four points (2G, 2A) in four games.
Smith has an excellent college resume and he's exploded onto the AHL scene, but the question remains, what kind of NHL player can Smith be?
If you look at the defensemen the Red Wings have selected in the first round over the past 20 years, his ceiling is MUCH higher than the picks from the early-to-mid 1990s. Anders Eriksson ('93, #22), Yan Golubovsky ('94, #23), Maxim Kuznetzov ('95, #26), and Jesse Wallin ('96, #26). Those four players combined to play 371 games and registered 55 points. Smith has the natural offensive skill set to register 55 points by himself in a single season. I don't expect him to put up that many points in his rookie season in the NHL, but certainly by season three the expectations are there.
Next up is Jiri Fischer ('98 #25). Fischer only played six season in the NHL and, sadly, his career was cut short when he collapsed on the bench in the middle of a game after going into cardiac arrest. Fischer played 305 games and scored 60 points. His point total may not be high, but he had developed into a very solid player in his own zone. Fischer could have been a mainstay on the Wings' blue line even to this day. Smith will no doubt be better offensively than Fischer was, but his physical game might not match-up. Fischer (6'5") has three inches on Smith (6'2") and weighs a good 35-40lbs more.
Niklas Kronwall ('00, #29) was the next Red Wings defensemen to be draft in the first round. Kronwall has spent parts of seven seasons with Detroit and played in 313 games. He has 146 career points. In each of first three full seasons, Kronner improved his point total each season from 22 to 35 to 51 points. Last year, Kronwall missed half the season due to a knee injury. He played 48 games and registered 22 points. Had he been healthy and played 75-82 games, he would have ended up near the 50 point range again. I can see Smith's career following a similar time line. If Smith can reach 50 points by year three, he can become one of the elite defensemen in the league in the offensive zone. If Smith reaches 50-plus points in his second season, he could be thrown into the discussion of young defensemen like Drew Doughty and Duncan Keith.
The Red Wings only drafted one defenseman in the first round between Kronwall and Smith. It was none other than Jakub Kindl ('05, #19). Of course, Kindl is currently four games into his rookie campaign, so his resume is currently incomplete.
Since Nicklas Lidstrom is the greatest defenseman in the history of hockey, I don't think it's fair to compare Smith to him. But if I had to predict where Smith will be in 5-to-10 years, I can comfortably say that he'll fall somewhere in between Kronwall and Lidstrom. He has the offensive talent to put up 50 points a season in the NHL. If he tightens his defensive game up, the kid has Norris candidate potential (then again, Mike Green was nominated for the Norris and he doesn't know what defense is).
Bottom line: the sky is the limit for Brendan Smith and he can be a top pairing defenseman in Detroit for a long, long time.
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